WHAT WILL THE YEAR-END BRING?
Throughout 2022, the United States Federal Reserve has been trying to slow inflation by putting the brakes on the U.S. economy. So far, the Fed has raised rates six times, but the economy continues to grow. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the economy grew faster than originally thought from July through September 2022. The value of all goods and services produced by the U.S. was up 2.9 percent, annualized, rather than 2.6 percent as the advance estimate had indicated.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The early December unemployment report also suggested the economy remains strong. More jobs were added than economists expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. Average hourly earnings also increased faster than expected, up 5.1 percent over the last 12 months.
STOCKS AND BONDS
Recent stock and bond markets rallied following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s mid-week speech, in which he confirmed it was likely that December’s rate increase would be smaller than the last few increases. The way I see it, the country is between inflation and recession debates and policy. Once the path is more clearly defined, the markets will have a more consistent picture.
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT’S DECEMBER ALREADY?
According to Andy Williams, Garth Brooks, and Kylie Minogue, “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year.” During December, holiday enthusiasts don ugly sweaters, wheedle recipes out of relatives, light candles, and celebrate a diversity of holidays. See what you know about this magical time of the year by taking our brief quiz.
Which of the following holidays is NOT celebrated in December?
- a. International Ninja Day
- b. Sacher-Torte Day
- c. Dewey-Decimal System Day
- d. National Take Down the Christmas Tree Day
Scientists have studied the psychology of gift-giving. They find that the most valued presents are:
- a. Expensive gifts that make others envious
- b. Beautifully wrapped gifts that are pleasing to the eye
- c. Sentimental gifts that bring joy and happiness
- d. Thoughtful gifts that reflect the recipient’s hobbies and interests
Which generation is expected to spend the most ($1,823) on gifts, travel, and entertainment this holiday season?
- a. Gen Z (Ages 9 to 24)
- b. Millennials (Ages 25 to 40)
- c. Gen X (Ages 41 to 56
- d. Boomers (Ages 57 to 75)
When did the New Year’s Eve ball drop first take place in New York’s Times Square? (Hint: Teddy Roosevelt was President.)
- a. 1893
- b. 1907
- c. 1920
- d. 1945
If you have any questions, please call Santa.
WEEKLY FOCUS
“I’d rather have Peace on Earth than pieces of earth.”
– Child, age 9
As always, I am here to answer any questions or concerns you may have. Let’s remember that success is walking the journey together!
Quiz Answers: 1) D; 2) C; 3) B; 4) B
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* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
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* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
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* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stocks of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. A high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that the strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
SOURCES
https://www.cnn.com/2001/US/05/15/runaway.train.05/
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/us-economy-added-263000-jobs-november-expected-fed-rate-hikes-rcna59775
https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-preliminary-third-quarter
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm (or go to
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/12-05-22_Barrons_Why%20the%20Fed%20Must%20Cause%20More%20Pain%20to%20the%20Job%20Market_4.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-interest-rate-hike-inflation-wage-growth-job-market-51670025045 (or go to
https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2022/12-05-22_Barrons_Stocks%20Rise%20on%20Cooling%20Inflation%20and%20Fed%20Moderation_5.pdf)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-dow-nasdaq-sp500-inflation-fed-51670031738?mod=hp_LEAD_2
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_Most_Wonderful_Time_of_the_Year
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/melody-beattie-quotes
https://nationaltoday.com/january-holidays/#jan-6
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S105774081730044X
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/consumer-markets/library/2022-holiday-outlook-trends.html
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/01/17/where-millennials-end-and-generation-z-begins/
https://timessquareball.net/ball-history/