The odds on a “Santa Rally” this year and your tariff questions answered!
Market Commentary

THE MARKETS

Will there be a Santa Rally?

A Santa Rally refers to a tendency for markets to rise during the last weeks of December. Of course, it’s not guaranteed but it’s a well-known seasonal pattern.

United States stock markets are serving another cup of cheer this year so let’s see how it ends up.

I have always held a favorable tilt toward the U.S. markets in my career, and time and time again that approach has been proven correct. This year I’ve designed your portfolios with major U.S. allocations, and it’s made a significant difference.

On a relative basis, U.S. stock markets have significantly outperformed stock markets elsewhere. Through December 9th, the S&P rose 27%. By contrast, notice the performance of a few non-U.S. indexes through Thanksgiving.

Index Name Year-To-Date (thru 11/28/24)
MSCI Europe 0.98%
MSCI Europe, Australia and the Far East (EAFE) 2.95%
MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) 5.46%
MSCI Japan 6.14%
MSCI China 12.91%
MSCI India 13.54%

Over the year, the number of U.S. stocks participating in the rally rose. As reported by Paul R. La Monica in Barron’s, “The rally is broadening out … more stocks are advancing than declining. Typically, that phenomenon bodes well for the entire stock market. It’s a sign of better market breadth, meaning that the major indexes aren’t being led by just a small handful of stocks.

THERE ARE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT TARIFFS

Last week, president-elect Donald Trump took to social media, promising to increase tariffs on China, Mexico, and
Canada. One result was that internet searches related to the term “tariffs” increased sharply. These searches included:

  • How do tariffs work?
  • What is Trump’s tariff plan?
  • Things to buy before tariffs
  • Tariffs for dummies

Here are a few answers to common questions about tariffs:

What are tariffs? Tariffs are a form of tax that one country assesses on materials, parts, and products imported from another country.

What do tariffs do? In theory, raising prices on foreign goods will protect U.S. companies and jobs by encouraging Americans to buy goods that are produced in the United States. It doesn’t always work that way because the country the U.S. imposes tariffs on is likely to respond in kind, adding tariffs to U.S. materials, parts, and products.

Who pays for tariffs? The cost of a tariff is paid by U.S. businesses and U.S. consumers. “The importer who brings the product into the country—be it a car or an avocado—is responsible for the tariff at the port of entry. Customs officials collect the tax and the money goes to the U.S. Treasury. The importer can pass the cost of the tariff along in the form of higher prices to the consumer. Or, in some cases, the manufacturer or importer may choose to absorb some or all of the cost, taking a hit to the bottom line,” reported Tim Smart of U.S. News & World Report.

How much will tariffs raise prices? After the president-elect announced his tariff intentions, Barron’s estimated “that a 10 [percent] tariff could raise the cost of a new car in the U.S. by 4 [percent] or 5 [percent] without any adjustments from auto makers. That was based [on] imports and where parts and cars are manufactured in North America. A 25 [percent] tariff on Canada and Mexico implies the price jump would be closer to 8 [percent],” reported Al Root of Barron’s.

When countries fight by raising tariffs, it’s called a trade war.

Focus – Think About It

It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
Karl Kristian Steincke

Danish Politician

IMPORTANT REMINDER: We have an income fund that adjusts its rate on a regular basis that can keep you ahead of inflation and is paying 6.75% on a monthly basis. This would be tax-free in your IRA accounts. Let me know if you have an interest in a possible placement.

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Sources

https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

https://www.barrons.com/market-data (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Barrons_Data_2.pdf)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/the-vintage-year-for-us-stock-markets-that-few-people-expected (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Bloomberg_A%20Vintage%20Year_3.pdf)

https://www.msci.com/end-of-day-data-search (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_MSCI_End%20of%20Day%20Index%20Data%20Search_4.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-rally-tech-nvidia-rates-304f6048 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Barrons_Stock%20Market%20Isnt%20Just%20Big%20Tech_5.pdf)

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/11/25/scott-bessent-trump-treasury-secretary-bond-rates-yield-t-note/

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/what-is-a-tariff-194059448.html

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=what%20is%20a%20tariff&hl=en-UShttps://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%207-d&geo=US&q=who%20pays%20tariffs&hl=en-US; and https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=tarrifs&date=today%203-m&geo=US (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Google%20Trends_8.pdf)

https://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/help-heartland-employment-and-electoral-effects-trump-tariffs-united-states-0

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-11-27/what-is-a-tariff-and-who-pays-it-spoiler-alert-you-will

https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-tariffs-ford-gm-stock-030da5ef?mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/12-02-24_Barrons_Why%20GM%20Stock%20Is%20Getting%20Crushed%20by%20Trump%20Tariff%20Threats_11.pdf)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/trade-war.asp

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/

Disclaimers

* These financial views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter is partially based on one prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

* The 5 Star Award was issued on 9/1/23 by Five Star Professional (FSP) for the time period 11/14/22 through 5/31/23. Fee paid for use of marketing materials. Self-completed questionnaire was used for rating. This rating is not related to the quality of the investment advice and based solely on the disclosed criteria. 3,209 Atlanta-area wealth managers were considered for the award; 237 (7% of candidates) were named 2023 Five Star Wealth Managers. The following prior year statistics use this format: YEAR: # Considered, # Winners, % of candidates, Issued Date, Research Period. 2022: 3285, 263, 8%, 9/1/22, 12/13/21 – 6/10/22; 2021: 3254, 265, 8%, 9/1/21, 11/30/20 – 6/25/21; 2020: 3314, 268, 8%, 9/1/20, 12/23/19 – 7/10/20; 2019: 3197, 285, 9%, 9/1/19, 12/10/18 – 7/23/19; 2018: 3248, 287, 9%, 9/1/18, 12/29/17 – 7/24/18; 2017: 2378, 301, 13%, 9/1/17, 12/30/16 – 7/14/17; 2016: 2210, 526, 24%, 8/1/16, 2/4/16 – 7/22/16; 2015: 3620, 546, 15%, 9/1/15, 2/4/15 – 7/22/15; 2014: 4433, 560, 13%, 9/1/14, 2/4/14 – 7/22/14; 2013: 2852, 592, 21%, 9/1/13, 2/4/13 – 7/22/13; 2012: 2660, 607, 23%, 9/1/12, 2/4/12 – 7/22/12. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers. The award is based on 10 objective criteria. Eligibility criteria-required: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser (RIA) or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Actively licensed as a RIA or as a principal of a registered investment adviser firm for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by FSP, the wealth manager has not; A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in a license being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three settled or pending complaints filed against them and/or a total of five settled, pending, dismissed, or denied complaints with any regulatory authority or FSP’s consumer complaint process. Unfavorable feedback may have been discovered through a check of complaints registered with a regulatory authority or complaints registered through FSP’s consumer complaint process; feedback may not be representative of any one client’s experience; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy within the past 11 years; E. Been terminated from a financial services firm within the past 11 years; F. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients. Evaluation criteria-considered: 6. One-year client retention rate; 7. Five-year client retention rate; 8. Non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Education and professional designations. FSP does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients. The award is not indicative of the wealth manager’s future performance. Wealth Managers may or may not use discretion in their practice and therefore may not manage their clients’ assets. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by FSP or this publication. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager or any wealth manager is no guarantee as to future investment success, nor is there any guarantee that the selected wealth managers will be awarded this accomplishment by FSP in the future. Visit www.fivestarprofessional.com.