Expectations and Opportunities
Market Commentary

The Markets

It’s gone better than expected.

The United States economy is not performing the way many predicted. Instead of tipping into a recession last year, the economy beat expectations. The value of all goods and services produced in the country, expanded 2.5 %, after inflation, for the year.

U.S. Economic Growth

1Q 2023: 2.2 %

2Q 2023: 2.1 %

3Q 2023: 4.9 %

4Q 2023: 3.3 %

Here’s some additional good news: Inflation continued to move lower while the economy grew last quarter. Recently, the personal consumption index reported that core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, dropped from 3.2 percent to 2.9 percent.

Focus – Think About It

Remember that sometimes not getting what you want
is a wonderful stroke of luck.
Tenzin Gyatso, Dalai Lama

IMPORTANT REMINDER: I have a FIVE Star Fund that is yielding 6.65% and pays income monthly. It’s also liquid and could be an option to discuss if you are holding CDs. Please, reach out to me if you’d like to add some underperforming cash, savings, or CDs that you’d like to blend in with your holdings.

Best regards,

Bill

Sign up to receive the Spalding Wealth Monthly Newsletter.

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2023.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

https://www.barrons.com/articles/december-jobs-report-today-64efdb87?mod=hp_LEAD_2
(or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/01-08-24_Barrons_%20Decembers%20Strong%20Jobs%20Data%20Will%20Keep%20the%20Fed%20on%20Hold_5.pdf)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-010524/card/odds-of-march-rate-cut-dip-after-jobs-data-sgv1HdFF6ZBIT1fFuzWV#

https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-010524?mod=lc_navigation
(or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/01-08-23_Barrons_Latest%20Updates_8.pdf)

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202401

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/narrative-economics-how-stories-go-viral

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-27/magnificent-seven-stocks-risk-losing-sheen-in-fed-s-soft-landing?embedded-checkout=true
(or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/01-08-24_Bloomberg_Magnificent%20Seven%20Loses%20Importance_11.pdf)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/can-sizzling-magnificent-seven-trade-keep-powering-us-stocks-2024-2023-12-28/

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231118296/magnificent-seven-stocks-enjoyed-a-blistering-2023-heres-what-it-would-take-for-that-rally-to-spill-over-into-2024

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231202479/the-magnificent-seven-have-dominated-the-stock-market-this-year-thats-the-bad-news

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-three-of-the-magnificent-seven-are-actually-devastating-losers/

Disclaimers

* These financial views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This Market Commentary is based on one prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.