Prospects for a Soft Landing and Perception Versus Reality
Market Commentary

What’s Next

Are we witnessing an historic event?

For an airplane or a spacecraft, a soft landing occurs when the vehicle “touches the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage it,” according to The Britannica Dictionary.

For the American economy, a soft landing happens when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool the economy and push inflation lower—and achieves its goal without causing a recession and significantly higher unemployment. It’s not an easy task.

Solid economic growth, low unemployment, rising wages, and falling inflation have one Federal Reserve official and several economists declaring that the American economy has achieved this rare event—a soft-landing, reported Bryan Mena of CNN.

So, exactly how well is the U.S. doing?

“The extent to which America has outperformed other countries since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic is breathtaking. Its real GDP has expanded by more than 10 [percent], nearly three times as much as the euro area. Among the G20 group, which includes both rich countries and emerging markets, America is the only one where output is above pre-pandemic expectations, according to the International Monetary Fund,” reported Simon Rabinovitch of The Economist.

PERCEPTION VS. REALITY

The human brain is complex and powerful. It runs on about 20 watts of power and brains need to be recharged, just like your cell phone does, according to Northwestern Medicine.

It’s interesting to note that brains are not objective. They catalogue our experiences, beliefs, and emotions and then interpret what’s happening around us. As a result, our reality on any given day is affected by “our personal physical abilities, energy levels, feelings, social identities, and more,” reported Jill Suttie in Greater Good Magazine.

For example, studies have found that hills look steeper when people are:

  • Tired.
  • Wearing backpacks.
  • Thinking of people they dislike.

In contrast, hills look less steep when people feel energetic or think of a supportive friend.

An August survey from the National Federation of Independent Business, a small-business advocacy group, reinforced the idea that there is a gap between economic perception and economic reality. The survey found that small business owners were quite optimistic about the financial state of their businesses, reasonably optimistic about the state of their local economies, and pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy.

Excellent/
Good
Okay Poor
Financial state of my business 70% 25% 5%
Financial state of my local economy 25% 44% 32%
Financial state of the U.S. economy 10% 32% 58%

When survey participants were asked when the United States might experience another recession, 52 percent said the U.S. economy was in a recession right now. A recession is a downturn in economic activity that lasts for a significant period. Economic data show the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product (the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S.), has been growing since late 2020.

The answers were interesting because most businesses—small and large—experience declines in sales and profitability when the national economy is doing poorly or in a recession. The gap in perception and reality may reflect the fact that “people are upbeat about what they see directly but pessimistic about what they glean indirectly through media (and social media),” opined Rabinovitch of The Economist.

Focus – Think About It

A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.
Winston Churchill

former British Prime Minister

IMPORTANT REMINDER: We have an income fund that adjusts its rate on a regular basis that can keep you ahead of inflation and is paying 6.75% on a monthly basis. This would be tax-free in your IRA accounts. Let me know if you have an interest in a possible placement.

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Sources

https://www.britannica.com/dictionary/soft-landing

https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/banking/what-is-a-soft-landing (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Buy%20Side%20from%20WSJ_2.pdf)

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/economy/us-economy-gdp-q3/index.html

https://view.e.economist.com/?qs=8c4d858fa9139d530b00b25ec40bdf65fe117f88d5729ea94d87cbf85c43f09e3c17bbd199ce5c4ec8cb2d3777e0fe59cddd9c37a482b43ccf58aee1f87c8be0cf0f07b2684ca669d23da9b81cfb7a85 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_The%20Economist_Money%20Talks_4.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/market-tricked-investors-election-day-bounce-7ea56c39?refsec=the-trader&mod=topics_the-trader (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Barrons_The%20Market%20Tricked%20Investors_5.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Barrons%20Data_6.pdf)

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-yields-jobs-report-treasury-6f6e602e?mod=md_bond_news (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_Barrons_Bond%20Yields%20Fell%20After%20Jobs%20Report_7.pdf)

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024

https://www.nm.org/healthbeat/healthy-tips/11-fun-facts-about-your-brain

https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/eight_reasons_to_distrust_your_own_perceptions

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S002210310800070X#:~

https://strgnfibcom.blob.core.windows.net/nfibcom/Banking-Survey-2023-Part-II.pdf [Questions 20-23]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP#0 (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/11-04-24_FRED%20Data_13.pdf)

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/recession-affecting-business.asp#:

https://www.azquotes.com/quote/56321?ref=funny-political

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