Interest Rates and Jobs … and a Holiday Quiz!
Market Commentary

What’s Next

Asset allocation is important because it helps manage the risks and rewards of investing. In general, investments have different levels of risk and the potential return (or reward) for taking that level of risk is a higher return. For example, investing in stocks typically has greater risk than investing in quality bonds or cash. In return for taking a higher level of risk (i.e., tolerating the ups and downs of the stock market), investors have the potential to earn higher returns. Quality bonds have less risk hat stocks and offer lower return potential, and cash/cash equivalents have the least risk and the lowest return potential. 

During the third quarter of 2024—July through September—the stock market offered a lively ride that demonstrated the concept of risk and reward. Major U.S. stock indices bobbed up and down throughout July before dropping sharply in the first week of August when the July unemployment report lagged expectations. The news caused investors to wonder whether the Fed had waited too long to lower rates. 

The stock market rebounded over the remainder of the month as inflation continued to trend lower and economic data remained robust. Then, during the first week of September, the number of new jobs created in August was lower than predicted and confidence stumbled again. Uncertainty led to a sharp—and short-lived—decline in stock prices. From that week on, U.S. stock prices trended higher. 

Over the quarter, the dips and dives of the stock market made a lot of headlines in the news but by the end of the quarter, stock prices overall had moved significantly higher.

Last week, the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed higher after the U.S. employment report showed 254,000 jobs were created in September. That was well above expectations. The number of jobs created in July and August were revised higher, too. Yields on many maturities of U.S. Treasuries moved higher last week.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT HOLIDAYS?

Holidays and the economy are inextricably intertwined. Halloween, Thanksgiving, Hannukah, Christmas, Yaldā Night, Kwanzaa, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, Lunar New Year, and other celebrations give the U.S. economy a boost because people spend money to observe them. It works the other way, too. The state of the economy can affect how much consumers spend on holidays. When the economy is doing well, people typically have more to spend, and vice versa.

Test your knowledge on the holidays by taking this brief quiz: 

  1. Which of the following events did Americans spend the most on in 2024? 

    • A) Fourth of July
    • B) The Super Bowl
    • C) St. Patrick’s Day
    • D) Father’s Day
  2. Americans are expected to spend about $104 per person on Halloween in 2024. Some of that money will be spent on costumes. According to a National Retail Federation survey, which costume ranks in the top five for both children and pets? 

    • A) Pumpkin
    • B) Ghost
    • C) Hot Dog
    • D) Superhero
  3. In 2024, back-to-school shoppers (K-12) expected to spend the highest percentage of their budgets on which of the following categories?  

    • A) Shoes
    • B) Electronics
    • C) Classroom Supplies
    • D) Clothing
  4. In 2024, back-to-school shoppers (K-12) expected to spend the highest percentage of their budgets on which of the following categories?  

    • A) Shoes
    • B) Electronics
    • C) Classroom Supplies
    • D) Clothing
  5. A recent survey found that Gen Xers (44-59 years old) like Thanksgiving and Memorial Day holidays the best, while Baby Boomers (60-78 years old) prefer Memorial Day and Veteran’s Day. Which holidays are at the top of the list for Millennials (28-43 years old)?

    • A) Thanksgiving Day and Mother’s Day 
    • B) Memorial Day and Veteran’s Day 
    • C) Christmas and Martin Luther King Day 
    • D) Halloween and New Year’s Eve 

Focus – Think About It

We have seasons when we flourish and seasons when the leaves fall from us, revealing our bare bones. Given time, they grow again.

Katherine May

Author

IMPORTANT REMINDER: We have an income fund that adjusts its rate on a regular basis that can keep you ahead of inflation and is paying 6.75% on a monthly basis. This would be tax-free in your IRA accounts. Let me know if you have an interest in a possible placement.

Holiday Quiz Answers: 1) d; 2) b; 3) b; 4) a  

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Sources

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/assetallocation.asp 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-07-24_Yahoo%20Finance_Data_2.pdf)   

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/august-stock-market-fiasco-stark-130900158.html 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/06/august-jobs-unemployment-labor-market/ (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-07-24_Washington%20Post_August%20Jobs%20Unemployment%20Labor%20Market_4.pdf)   

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-drop-investors-brace-payrolls-data-2024-09-06/   

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-hit-fresh-records-to-cap-strong-september-quarter-145516820.html# 

https://x.com/Markzandi/status/1840488882405614037#   

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-07-24_Barrons_Data_8.pdf)   

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm   

https://insight.factset.com/total-nonfarm-payrolls-for-september-2024-are-projected-to-rise-by-140000   

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2024 

https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/halloween   

https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/70486056-wintering-the-power-of-rest-and-retreat-in-difficult-times   

https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/fathers-day; https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/super-bowl; https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/st-patricks-day; https://nrf.com/research-insights/holiday-data-and-trends/independence-day/independence-day-data-center (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/10-07-24_NRF_Spending_14.pdf)   

https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nearly-half-halloween-shoppers-start-purchasing-items-october   

https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/majority-back-class-shoppers-have-already-begun-purchasing-school-items   

https://today.yougov.com/ratings/entertainment/popularity/national-religious-events/millennials 

Disclaimers

* These financial views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. 

* This newsletter is partially based on one prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer. 

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. 

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features. 

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index. 

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index. 

* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index. 

* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. 

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM. 

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. 

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. 

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal. 

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. 

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets. 

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. 

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains. 

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. 

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. 

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete. 

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. 

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. 

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. 

* The 5 Star Award was issued on 9/1/23 by Five Star Professional (FSP) for the time period 11/14/22 through 5/31/23. Fee paid for use of marketing materials. Self-completed questionnaire was used for rating. This rating is not related to the quality of the investment advice and based solely on the disclosed criteria. 3,209 Atlanta-area wealth managers were considered for the award; 237 (7% of candidates) were named 2023 Five Star Wealth Managers. The following prior year statistics use this format: YEAR: # Considered, # Winners, % of candidates, Issued Date, Research Period. 2022: 3285, 263, 8%, 9/1/22, 12/13/21 – 6/10/22; 2021: 3254, 265, 8%, 9/1/21, 11/30/20 – 6/25/21; 2020: 3314, 268, 8%, 9/1/20, 12/23/19 – 7/10/20; 2019: 3197, 285, 9%, 9/1/19, 12/10/18 – 7/23/19; 2018: 3248, 287, 9%, 9/1/18, 12/29/17 – 7/24/18; 2017: 2378, 301, 13%, 9/1/17, 12/30/16 – 7/14/17; 2016: 2210, 526, 24%, 8/1/16, 2/4/16 – 7/22/16; 2015: 3620, 546, 15%, 9/1/15, 2/4/15 – 7/22/15; 2014: 4433, 560, 13%, 9/1/14, 2/4/14 – 7/22/14; 2013: 2852, 592, 21%, 9/1/13, 2/4/13 – 7/22/13; 2012: 2660, 607, 23%, 9/1/12, 2/4/12 – 7/22/12. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers. The award is based on 10 objective criteria. Eligibility criteria-required: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser (RIA) or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Actively licensed as a RIA or as a principal of a registered investment adviser firm for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by FSP, the wealth manager has not; A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in a license being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three settled or pending complaints filed against them and/or a total of five settled, pending, dismissed, or denied complaints with any regulatory authority or FSP’s consumer complaint process. Unfavorable feedback may have been discovered through a check of complaints registered with a regulatory authority or complaints registered through FSP’s consumer complaint process; feedback may not be representative of any one client’s experience; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy within the past 11 years; E. Been terminated from a financial services firm within the past 11 years; F. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients. Evaluation criteria-considered: 6. One-year client retention rate; 7. Five-year client retention rate; 8. Non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Education and professional designations. FSP does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients. The award is not indicative of the wealth manager’s future performance. Wealth Managers may or may not use discretion in their practice and therefore may not manage their clients’ assets. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by FSP or this publication. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager or any wealth manager is no guarantee as to future investment success, nor is there any guarantee that the selected wealth managers will be awarded this accomplishment by FSP in the future. Visit www.fivestarprofessional.com.