Interest Rates and the Lottery: Feeling Lucky?
Market Commentary

The Markets

A trio of issues have caused investors to reassess their expectations for the year. Here’s what many were thinking about:

Prices rising at home. Recently, the Consumer Price Index showed prices had moved higher in March. Headline inflation was 3.5 percent year-over-year, up from 3.2 percent in February. Higher prices for gasoline and shelter were the primary drivers of the increase. Inflation, in tandem with a strong economy, made it tougher for the Federal Reserve to lower rates in the next meeting.

Tensions rising overseas. One of the drivers behind rising prices is geopolitics. Oil markets have been responding to the possibility of escalating tensions in the Middle East, as well as the damage done by drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Equities have moved lower and gold moved higher.

Corporate earnings growth. . Banks began reporting on their performance during the first quarter of 2024. Some banks reported net interest income (the profit earned from lending money) that was lower than analysts anticipated. The gap in expectations was due, in part, to the fact that bank accountholders were seeking higher returns on their savings, reported Sridhar Natarajan of Bloomberg. Despite disappointment over bank’s interest income, earnings grew by 3.2% for the handful of S&P 500 companies that have already reported, according to John Butters at FactSet.

Following a strong first quarter in the stock market, financial markets in the short run have been volatile as investors adjust to U.S. economic strength and changing expectations for Fed rate cuts and geopolitical events.

TO PLAY OR NOT TO PLAY?

Whenever lottery jackpots swell, a wave of interest seems to roll across the United States. It happened in April. After the numbers were drawn, someone in Oregon had won $1.3 billion.

Prizes like that make lotteries tempting – and there are plenty of lotteries selling tickets. In the United States, government-operated lotteries are active in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The odds of winning a lottery, typically, are astronomically low. In April, the odds of winning were 1 in 292 million, according to Khristopher Brooks of CBS News. Despite the poor odds, people spend an enormous amount of money on lottery tickets. In 2023, people in the U.S. spent more than $110 billion on lottery tickets. The Economist reported:

“In the poorest 1% of zip codes that have lottery retailers, the average American adult spends around $600 a year, or nearly 5% of their income, on tickets. That compares with just $150, or 0.15%, for those in the richest 1% of zip codes. In other words, the poorest households spend roughly 30 times more on lotteries than richer ones, as a share of income.”

If people saved and invested instead of spending on lottery tickets, they could have more to show for it. For example, 30-year-olds who save:

  • $150 a year might have about $35,000 at full retirement age, if they earned 8 percent on average each year.
  • $600 a year might have about $142,000, at full retirement age, if they earned 8 percent on average each year.

The bottom line is that saving and investing is more likely to help people reach their financial goals than buying lottery tickets. No surprise about this set of data!

Focus – Think About It

“It isn’t where you came from, it’s where you’re going that counts.”

Ella Fitzgerald, Singer

IMPORTANT REMINDER: We have an income fund that adjusts its rate on a regular basis that can keep you ahead of inflation and is paying 6.75% on a monthly basis. This would be tax-free in your IRA accounts. Let me know if you have an interest in a possible placement.

Sign up to receive the Spalding Wealth Monthly Newsletter.

Sources

Sources:
https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-041224?mod=article_inline (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/04-15-24_Barrons_Dow%20Slides%20as%20Banks%20Kick%20Off%20Earnings%20Season_1.pdf)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03122024.htm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/us-core-cpi-rises-more-than-forecast-for-third-straight-month (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/04-15-24_Bloomberg_US%20Inflation%20Refuses%20to%20Bend_4.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=homepage-americas (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/04-15-24_Bloomberg_Stocks%20Get%20Hit%20as%20War%20Jitters%20Fuel%20Rush%20to%20Bonds_5.pdf)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-12/bull-case-fizzles-for-big-us-banks-to-earn-ever-more-on-lending?srnd=markets-vp (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/04-15-24_Bloomberg_Bull%20Case%20Fizzles%20for%20Big%20Banks%20to%20Earn%20Ever-More%20on%20Lending_6.pdf)
https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_040524A.pdf
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202404
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/lottery/2024/04/08/powerball-winning-numbers/73251368007/
https://www.naspl.org/faq
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/powerball-drawing-jackpot-lottery-odds-of-winning/
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/04/02/the-economics-of-american-lotteries (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/04-15-24_Economist_The%20Economics%20of%20American%20Lotteries_12.pdf)
http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/compound_interest_calculator.htm (or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2024/04-15-24_Intact_Compound%20Interest%20Calculator_13.pdf)
https://www.brainyquote.com/authors/ella-fitzgerald-quotes

Disclaimers

* These financial views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.
* This newsletter is partially based on one prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.
* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.
* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.
* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.
* The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.
* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow,” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of The Wall Street Journal.
* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.
* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.
* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.
* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.
* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* The 5 Star Award was issued on 9/1/23 by Five Star Professional (FSP) for the time period 11/14/22 through 5/31/23. Fee paid for use of marketing materials. Self-completed questionnaire was used for rating. This rating is not related to the quality of the investment advice and based solely on the disclosed criteria. 3,209 Atlanta-area wealth managers were considered for the award; 237 (7% of candidates) were named 2023 Five Star Wealth Managers. The following prior year statistics use this format: YEAR: # Considered, # Winners, % of candidates, Issued Date, Research Period. 2022: 3285, 263, 8%, 9/1/22, 12/13/21 – 6/10/22; 2021: 3254, 265, 8%, 9/1/21, 11/30/20 – 6/25/21; 2020: 3314, 268, 8%, 9/1/20, 12/23/19 – 7/10/20; 2019: 3197, 285, 9%, 9/1/19, 12/10/18 – 7/23/19; 2018: 3248, 287, 9%, 9/1/18, 12/29/17 – 7/24/18; 2017: 2378, 301, 13%, 9/1/17, 12/30/16 – 7/14/17; 2016: 2210, 526, 24%, 8/1/16, 2/4/16 – 7/22/16; 2015: 3620, 546, 15%, 9/1/15, 2/4/15 – 7/22/15; 2014: 4433, 560, 13%, 9/1/14, 2/4/14 – 7/22/14; 2013: 2852, 592, 21%, 9/1/13, 2/4/13 – 7/22/13; 2012: 2660, 607, 23%, 9/1/12, 2/4/12 – 7/22/12. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of Five Star Wealth Managers. The award is based on 10 objective criteria. Eligibility criteria-required: 1. Credentialed as a registered investment adviser (RIA) or a registered investment adviser representative; 2. Actively licensed as a RIA or as a principal of a registered investment adviser firm for a minimum of 5 years; 3. Favorable regulatory and complaint history review (As defined by FSP, the wealth manager has not; A. Been subject to a regulatory action that resulted in a license being suspended or revoked, or payment of a fine; B. Had more than a total of three settled or pending complaints filed against them and/or a total of five settled, pending, dismissed or denied complaints with any regulatory authority or FSP’s consumer complaint process. Unfavorable feedback may have been discovered through a check of complaints registered with a regulatory authority or complaints registered through FSP’s consumer complaint process; feedback may not be representative of any one client’s experience; C. Individually contributed to a financial settlement of a customer complaint; D. Filed for personal bankruptcy within the past 11 years; E. Been terminated from a financial services firm within the past 11 years; F. Been convicted of a felony); 4. Fulfilled their firm review based on internal standards; 5. Accepting new clients. Evaluation criteria-considered: 6. One-year client retention rate; 7. Five-year client retention rate; 8. Non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9. Number of client households served; 10. Education and professional designations. FSP does not evaluate the quality of services provided to clients. The award is not indicative of the wealth manager’s future performance. Wealth Managers may or may not use discretion in their practice and therefore may not manage their clients’ assets. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by FSP or this publication. Working with a Five Star Wealth Manager or any wealth manager is no guarantee as to future investment success, nor is there any guarantee that the selected wealth managers will be awarded this accomplishment by FSP in the future. Visit www.fivestarprofessional.com.