Weekly Market Commentary
June 3, 2020
The Markets
Are those green shoots?
In economic terms, green shoots are signs of improvement. If you were paying close attention, you might have seen some in economic data released last week.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated:
“…from March 21 to March 31, when many social distancing measures were in place, spending may have been down by almost 28 percent as a result of the pandemic; spending on accommodations and restaurants declined by 60 percent to 80 percent; and spending for some goods (such as clothing) dropped by similar amounts.”
Spoiler alert: The numbers for the second quarter are expected to be worse. However, economic growth is expected to bounce as consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, resumes.
The green shoots were found in unemployment. As businesses reopened and shelter-in-place orders eased, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 14.5 percent during the week of May 16 from 17.1 percent the previous week, according to the Department of Labor.
Green shoots were also sprouting from the University of Michigan’s May Consumer Sentiment Survey, which reported: “…a growing number of consumers expected the economy to improve from its recent standstill…” The Index of Consumer Sentiment ticked higher from April to May.
I have been re-blending to increase the stock holdings due to these trends and research calls that I have been on. The goal is long term not the next quarter which will be mainly affected by virus issues.
FYI: It’s June! One side effect of COVID-19 quarantine is losing track of days. When routines are disrupted and recurring activities that distinguish one day from the next are discontinued, it can be difficult to know whether it’s Monday or Thursday.
Fortunately, the United States has enough national holidays to clearly delineate one day from the next. Here is a list of some June holidays to help you keep track of days:
June 1: World Reef Awareness Day
June 2: National Bubba Day
June 3: National Running Day
June 4: National SAFE Day
June 5: National Doughnut Day
June 6: D-Day – remembering the day Allied troops landed on the beaches of Normandy
June 7: National Cancer Survivor’s Day
June 8: National Best Friends Day
June 9: National Earl Day
June 10: National Iced Tea Day
June 11: National Making Life Beautiful Day
June 12: National Loving Day
June 13: National Kitchen Klutzes of America Day
June 14: National Flag Day and the Birthday of the U.S. Army
June 15: National Smile Power Day
June 16: National Fudge Day
June 17: National Eat Your Vegetables Day
June 18: National Go Fishing Day
June 19: Juneteenth – commemorating the end of slavery
June 20: Summer Solstice – the start of summer in the Northern Hemisphere
June 21: Father’s Day – celebrating dear old dad
June 22: National Chocolate Eclair Day
June 23: National Pink Day
June 24: National Parchment Day
June 25: National Leon Day
June 26: Take Your Dog to Work Day
June 27: National PTSD Awareness Day
June 28: National Logistics Day
June 29: National Waffle Iron Day
June 30: Social Media Day (As if that weren’t every day!)
I have no idea who makes these up but every day is booked!! Let me know what’s your favorite! By the end of June, we should be on our way to a new normal and able to use the coronavirus lockdown as a point of reference for tracking events.
Focus On The Positive
“Give peace a chance” -John Lennon
Best regards,
Bill Spalding
Weekly Market Commentary
June 3, 2020
The Markets
Are those green shoots?
In economic terms, green shoots are signs of improvement. If you were paying close attention, you might have seen some in economic data released last week.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated:
“…from March 21 to March 31, when many social distancing measures were in place, spending may have been down by almost 28 percent as a result of the pandemic; spending on accommodations and restaurants declined by 60 percent to 80 percent; and spending for some goods (such as clothing) dropped by similar amounts.”
Spoiler alert: The numbers for the second quarter are expected to be worse. However, economic growth is expected to bounce as consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, resumes.
The green shoots were found in unemployment. As businesses reopened and shelter-in-place orders eased, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 14.5 percent during the week of May 16 from 17.1 percent the previous week, according to the Department of Labor.
Green shoots were also sprouting from the University of Michigan’s May Consumer Sentiment Survey, which reported: “…a growing number of consumers expected the economy to improve from its recent standstill…” The Index of Consumer Sentiment ticked higher from April to May.
I have been re-blending to increase the stock holdings due to these trends and research calls that I have been on. The goal is long term not the next quarter which will be mainly affected by virus issues.
FYI: It’s June! One side effect of COVID-19 quarantine is losing track of days. When routines are disrupted and recurring activities that distinguish one day from the next are discontinued, it can be difficult to know whether it’s Monday or Thursday.
Fortunately, the United States has enough national holidays to clearly delineate one day from the next. Here is a list of some June holidays to help you keep track of days:
June 1: World Reef Awareness Day
June 2: National Bubba Day
June 3: National Running Day
June 4: National SAFE Day
June 5: National Doughnut Day
June 6: D-Day – remembering the day Allied troops landed on the beaches of Normandy
June 7: National Cancer Survivor’s Day
June 8: National Best Friends Day
June 9: National Earl Day
June 10: National Iced Tea Day
June 11: National Making Life Beautiful Day
June 12: National Loving Day
June 13: National Kitchen Klutzes of America Day
June 14: National Flag Day and the Birthday of the U.S. Army
June 15: National Smile Power Day
June 16: National Fudge Day
June 17: National Eat Your Vegetables Day
June 18: National Go Fishing Day
June 19: Juneteenth – commemorating the end of slavery
June 20: Summer Solstice – the start of summer in the Northern Hemisphere
June 21: Father’s Day – celebrating dear old dad
June 22: National Chocolate Eclair Day
June 23: National Pink Day
June 24: National Parchment Day
June 25: National Leon Day
June 26: Take Your Dog to Work Day
June 27: National PTSD Awareness Day
June 28: National Logistics Day
June 29: National Waffle Iron Day
June 30: Social Media Day (As if that weren’t every day!)
I have no idea who makes these up but every day is booked!! Let me know what’s your favorite! By the end of June, we should be on our way to a new normal and able to use the coronavirus lockdown as a point of reference for tracking events.
Focus On The Positive
“Give peace a chance” -John Lennon
Best regards,
Bill Spalding